Some time ago, a business partner and I were applying to some grant for our company. The program was exactly what we were looking for. They were taking a fixed number of companies, and we had made it to the last stage.
"What do you think the odds are that we'll get it?" she'd asked me. "How many people do you think made it this far?"
And my response came to me intuitively. Even I was surprised.
"The thing is, it's not about the odds. It's not like we're playing a lottery. We're going to get this because of who we are and what we have. There are no odds here."
In any scenario where the inputs are variable -- that is, any scenario where you're not playing a lottery -- it doesn't make sense to ask what the odds are.
To reply you need to sign in.